Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution

INVITATION TO SUBMIT INFORMATION

Background to the new study
Intended scope of the study
Questions for consultation
Invitation to submit views
References

Consultation list

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Background to the new study

The Royal Commission has decided to undertake a limited study of the Environmental Effects of Air Transport. This study will be carried out over the summer and early autumn and will be published in advance of the government's White Paper on Air Transport, due at the end of the year.

The Commission will be re-examining work it has done previously in this area, and considering some new areas. The study will build on the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Aviation and the Global Climate (1999). Owing to the limited time available in which to complete the report, the Commission intends to focus on the environmental problems associated with aircraft in flight, rather than on issues associated with airport development and take-offs and landings. The Commission is therefore seeking evidence in response to specific questions. This letter indicates the topics the Commission intends to cover, and invites evidence and information in answer to the questions listed below. It also indicates topics that are specifically to be excluded. These are no less important issues but are beyond the scope of this current study.

Intended scope of the study

The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution has a longstanding interest in the environmental impacts of aviation. As far back as 1971¹ the Commission warned that it would be 'dangerously complacent' to ignore the potential implications for the local and global environments from the increasing number of commercial flights. So far this warning has not been well heeded, and it is therefore important that the forthcoming White Paper gives sufficient weight to the environmental issues associated with the growth in air transport of both passengers and goods.

Since our report in 1971 air transport has become the fastest growing mode of transport, with passenger numbers growing by 5% annually and air freight by 7%. Many have argued that it has brought great economic and social benefits. In the UK the industry contributes some £10.2 billion to the GDP and directly employs some 180,000 people.² However, many also believe it to be the least environmentally sustainable mode of transport and to cause serious environmental issues which must be addressed.

Air travel involves high emission rates of gases, particularly of carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen and water vapour, with climate change implications. In 1999 the IPCC estimated that aviation was responsible for around 3.5% of anthropogenic climate change but by 2050 they believed that the sector's impact on global warming could increase by a factor of between 2.6 to 11 in absolute terms. In the face of targets for terrestrial emissions, as set out in the Commission's Twenty-second Report Energy - The Changing Climate, this growth would make aviation a major contributor to global climate change even though emissions from aircraft are not included in the current round of negotiations over the Kyoto Protocol concerning emissions of 'greenhouse gases'. Significantly the IPCC's scenarios already assume a considerable improvement in fuel efficiency of aircraft (by 40-50% by 2050) as well as improvements in air traffic management.

The Commission intends to consider whether there is real potential for technical solutions to the problem. These could include changes to airframe or engine design to improve fuel efficiency. Possibilities for alternative fuels will be considered, recognising the concern that other fuels - particularly hydrogen - could exacerbate climate change impacts from aviation. However, the Commission is concerned that technical advances cannot offer as much improvement as will be required, and therefore intends also to consider the scope for demand management and ways of breaking out of the 'predict and provide' cycle.

Because of the limited time available for the study the Commission will not be able to consider land-based activities that are driven by and dependent on air transport. Particular topics to be excluded include tourism and changes in agriculture in tropical countries, such as switching production to crops for Western rather than domestic markets because of the accessibility of air transport. However, the Commission will be making it clear, in its submission to the Secretary of State for Transport, that these are important factors that need to be taken into account in air transport policy-making.

There is an argument that, on a global basis, air travel and access to products transported by air are available to a privileged population, whereas the impacts are universal. If technological improvements cannot, at the least, offset the impacts of the predicted growth, national and international measures may be needed to achieve equitable access to the benefits of air travel. Possible measures and approaches to implementation will need to be identified.

Questions for consultation

• What are the principal environmental impacts of aircraft in flight? How firm is scientific understanding of these impacts?
• What technological developments are foreseeable which could reduce the environmental impacts of flight? How much reduction might they achieve, and with what certainty can this be predicted?
• Do particular possible alternative fuels (eg hydrogen) or aircraft types (eg supersonic, near-sonic or wing/body designs) offer particular benefits or problems?
• How effective are current pressures to develop appropriate methods directed towards reducing environmental damage from air travel, either through technology or through demand management?
• Would projected growth in air travel and transport outweigh conceivable technological gains?
• Is international action needed to constrain growth with the purpose of preventing environmental damage? How might demand be managed, for both passengers and freight movements?
• To what extent would fiscal measures such as a tax on fuels or tickets secure any technological and market changes needed? Could such measures only be applied at international rather than regional (eg European Union) level?

Invitation to submit views

The Commission is requesting views and information that will help it to carry out the study. The list of questions given above is intended as a guide; given the limited timescale for this study the areas that can be covered in depth are restricted. However, the Commission will be glad to have other significant issues related to aircraft in flight drawn to its attention, for possible consideration for future studies.

Responses to this letter should be sent to me, preferably in an electronic format (via e-mail or on disk in PC format), at the address below by 31 August 2002. In advance of that, if you would like to discuss the approach the Commission is adopting or the kind of input it will find most useful, please get in touch by either phone or e-mail.

This letter is being addressed to around 20 organisations (listed in the annex) that are particularly likely to have useful experience. It is also being placed on the Commission's web site at www.rcep.org.uk/aviation and the Commission would be pleased to receive responses from other bodies that would like to contribute.

Yours sincerely

Anna Bradbury

RCEP Secretariat, 5-8 The Sanctuary, London SW1P 3JS
Tel (direct) 020 7799 8987; Tel (enquiries) 020 7799 8970; Fax 020 7799 8971
E-mail anna.bradbury@rcep.org.uk

References

^1. First Report (Cmnd 4585), February 1971.

^2. Figures from the Department for Transport website.

ANNEX

Consultation list

Association of British Travel Agents
Air Transport Users Council
British Aerospace
British Airports Authority
British Airline Pilots Association
British Airways
British Midland
The Cambridge University Chemistry Laboratory
Confederation of British Industry
Centre for Food Policy, Thames Valley University
ENDS - Environmental Data Services Ltd.
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Friends of the Earth
HACAN Clear Skies
Local Government Association
Meteorological Office Hadley Centre
Department of Meteorology, Reading University
Rolls-Royce plc.
Royal Academy of Engineering
Royal Aeronautical Society
Rutherford Appleton Laboratories
Ryanair
Department for Transport
WWF-UK

Additionally, invitation letters were subsequently sent also to the following bodies

Airports Council International (ACI)
Air Travel, Greener by Design
Association of European Airlines
Association of International Courier and Express Services
Aviation Environment Federation (AEF)
British Cargo Airline Alliance (BCAA)
Chair of Sustainable Aviation, Manchester Metropolitan University (Prof. Callum Thomas)
Charter Airline Group of the UK (CAGUK)
Department of Trade & Industry
Directorate-General Transport & Energy, European Commission (D-G TREN)
Environmental Research Consultancy Department, Civil Aviation Authority (ERCD, CAA)
Eurocontrol
European Association of Aerospace Industries
Freedom to Fly Coalition
HM Treasury
Institute for Public Policy Research
International Air Transport Association (IATA)
QinetiQ
Secretary of Committee for Aviation Environmental Protection, International Civil Aviation Organisation (CAEP, ICAO)
US Air Transport Association (ATA)
US Embassy, London